Global Annual Unit Sales of V2X-Connected Vehicles Set to Exceed 60 Million Vehicles by 2034, Reports IDTechEx

China is set to add 30 million new V2X-enabled vehicles to the road every year by 2034, according to IDTechEx’s report, “Connected and Software-Defined Vehicles 2024-2034: Markets, Forecasts, Technologies”, as part of a broader global trend that will see V2X technology become the standard in most vehicles.

The future-connected vehicle does not just use a standard smartphone cellular connection but also uses dedicated ‘V2X’ safety communication channels. V2X, which stands for Vehicle-to-Everything, uses Wi-Fi or cellular-based technology to facilitate communication with other vehicles and traffic infrastructure.

Suppose regulation or safety standards mandate this technology. In that case, V2X is set to become the ‘digital seatbelt’ of the future, promising to reduce accidents, improve congestion, and reduce emissions globally by allowing vehicle safety systems to talk to each other and city traffic infrastructure, even in the pouring rain, dense fog, or busy carparks.

The two most popular technologies for V2X, DSRC and C-V2X, require different hardware. DSRC is based on Wi-Fi protocols, and C-V2X is based on 4G or 5G protocols. Currently, there are approximately 1 million V2X-connected vehicles on the road globally, with those mainly concentrated in Europe and China.

About half the market is using DSRC-based technology (The Volkswagen Golf 8 and ID.X vehicles are equipped with ITS-G5 (EU DSRC equivalent) in Europe, known as Car2X), and the other half of the market is using C-V2X technology, with most of these vehicles being available in China.

C-V2X Technology

IDTechEx forecasts a significant market shift towards C-V2X technology, with over 90% predicted to use 5G-based C-V2X technology by 2034. The most significant contribution to this shift is regulation – the two largest vehicle markets in the world, the US and China, both have governmental organizations actively pushing for C-V2X adoption and have formally abandoned DSRC technology.

India, Korea, and Japan will likely follow international trends the US and China set. The EU is a region officially technologically neutral but has a solid existing DSRC/ITS-G5 base. The EU will likely maintain technology neutrality, and some C-V2X module providers are offering ‘Dual RAT’ systems that support both C-V2X and Wi-Fi-based V2X technology, meaning DSRC will maintain some market share globally. DSRC+, based on newer Wi-Fi technologies, may impact the market.

Still, IDTechEx’s analysis concludes that technology improvements may be too little and too late, and DSRC is a technology that has much less momentum compared to C-V2X.

New Car Assessment Program

If a technology is included in a New Car Assessment Program (NCAP), OEMs aiming to achieve a high safety rating must consist of it to pass specific tests. China has announced V2X inclusion in the CNCAP from 2024 onwards, which is set to result in significant growth for Chinese technology. Many manufacturers target a 5-star score in NCAPs, as NCAP scores can significantly impact sales.

As seen in the past with other safety technologies, such as automatic emergency braking (AEB), inclusion in a national NCAP assessment can be a significant driver for adopting a new safety technology.

For example, AEB grew from being included in 5% of new vehicles in 2014 (before being included in the EU NCAP) to being included in 71% of new cars in 2021 (seven years after being included in the EU NCAP), according to IDTechEx’s research.

Safety Technologies

Some OEMs, especially OEMs targeting a lower price point, may not prioritize NCAP safety scores. However, certain safety technologies, such as V2X communication, may still be included in vehicles if the OEM believes the technology will significantly drive vehicle sales. Some regional regulators could potentially mandate V2X technology in all new cars.

One area where V2X could make the most significant impact is for autonomous vehicles (AVs). The number and sophistication of sensors in an autonomous vehicle are vast and increase with the level of autonomy. AVs like those in Phoenix or San Francisco currently depend on LiDAR, radar, and cameras for most of their perception.

Each sensor fulfils essential functions and ensures robust and safe operation, but these vehicle sensor systems are limited by line-of-sight. Using either DSRC or C-V2X, autonomous vehicles can transmit information at a dedicated frequency (~5.9GHz), with V2X acting as an extra sensor that works in all weather conditions and can go through walls and obstacles, effectively solving the line-of-sight problem.

The primary feasible method for achieving this is to use V2X to broadcast the location-related information of each car. A connected vehicle receiving the information can calculate the possibility of collision with the other vehicle using onboard computing. If the risk is high, the driver (or passenger of an autonomous vehicle) will be immediately warned, and the system will adjust accordingly to avoid a collision safely and effectively.

IDTechEx expects V2X connectivity to not become a significant factor for autonomous vehicles before 2026. The technology could become mandatory for AVs within certain regions for regulatory reasons, or safety standards such as NCAP may integrate V2X into their testing of advanced driving assistance systems (ADAS), which would also apply to autonomous vehicles.

To learn more about the IDTechEx report “Connected and Software-Defined Vehicles 2024-2034: Markets, Forecasts, Technologies”, including downloadable sample pages, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/CSDV.