Forecasting Robotaxi Software Revenue: A Look Ahead to 2046

2025 has been a massive year so far for SAE level 4 autonomous vehicles, including the first foray outside of robotaxis. Market intelligence firm IDTechEx’s report, “Autonomous Driving Software and AI in Automotive 2026-2046: Technologies, Markets, Players”, analyses the progress of robotaxi services to date and forecasts the software revenue attributed to robotaxis up to 2046, split by region.

The role of these different players and their approaches is analysed, compared, and used to forecast the overall autonomous driving software market.

Increased Competition in the US

Waymo has established itself as the leader in robotaxi services, operating in Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Austin. The company has also formed partnerships with Uber and Lyft, two major ride-hailing companies that could be considered competitors to Waymo’s business model. With testing being done in Tokyo, it has also recently begun its first activities in international markets.

Tesla launched its robotaxi service in June 2025 and later increased its operational area to approximately 170 square miles in Austin, Texas.

In September, these rides were opened to the public, and no longer have an onboard human supervisor, while maintaining the remote operators that all robotaxis have. However, more time is required to ascertain whether the technology is mature enough to scale.

Two other companies have opened robotaxi services in the US this year: Zoox and May Mobility. Unlike other companies, Zoox’s robotaxi has been built from the ground up to be an autonomous vehicle. While Waymo’s robotaxis are currently retrofitted Jaguar I-PACEs, and Tesla uses its Model Y, Zoox’s robotaxi doesn’t have a steering wheel, pedals, or a driver’s seat.

May Mobility began operating a robotaxi pilot program in September 2025 in collaboration with Lyft, using modified hybrid Toyota Sienna minivans.

Since Cruise’s exit in December 2024, the only company operating robotaxis commercially was Waymo. In the past two months, the activities of other companies suggest that robotaxis could be set to take off. IDTechEx forecasts that by 2046, the US will account for nearly a quarter of the global software revenue from the robotaxi market.

China’s Market Continues to Grow, Europe Will Expand

With the second-largest population in the world, the addressable market for robotaxis in China is massive. In terms of scale, Waymo’s only current competitor is Apollo Go, which is owned by the technology giant Baidu.

Apollo Go is operational in over twelve Chinese cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wuhan. With a fleet of over one thousand vehicles, it has indicated its intention to serve foreign markets, targeting the UK and Germany by 2026.

Considering the current state of the European market and the activities of European companies such as Wayve and Motor AI, Europe could become a key battleground for technology superiority in the future.

The domestic market also features players with hundreds of vehicles, such as Pony.ai and WeRide, as well as upcoming companies like Momenta and Black Sesame, which are developing autonomous vehicle technology. With such a competitive domestic market, IDTechEx expects China to account for over half of the robotaxi software revenue by 2046.

Another player, AutoX, has unveiled the world’s first private SAE Level 4 autonomous vehicle under the new brand name Tensor. Under the name AutoX, the US-based company closed its robotaxi service in China two years ago. It remains to be seen whether this vehicle will enter the market, what it would cost, and how it would handle different responsibilities and liabilities associated with a private autonomous car.

Conclusions

2025 has seen significant advancements in autonomous vehicle technology, both in hardware and software. IDTechEx’s report, “Autonomous Driving Software and AI in Automotive 2026-2046: Technologies, Markets, Players”, forecasts a more than 1,000 times increase in software-related revenue for autonomous vehicles from 2026 to 2046.

While the US and Chinese markets are moving quickly, we are seeing signs that services in Europe, Japan, the Middle East, and other emerging markets will arrive before the end of the decade.